Near-Term AGI: If It's Coming in 2-4 Years, What's Your Optimal Strategy?

The Hacker News community recently grappled with a provocative hypothetical: what would be the optimal way to live if Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) were set to arrive in just 2-4 years? The original poster (OP) specifically defined AGI as a system capable of surpassing human performance in all cognitive and fine-motor tasks at a lower cost than human labor, effectively leading to an "economic checkmate for humans."

This premise, while speculative, aimed to sidestep debates about AGI's feasibility and instead focus on adaptive strategies. The ensuing discussion revealed a broad spectrum of reactions and perspectives, highlighting the complex emotions and intellectual challenges surrounding the AGI topic.

Diverse Reactions: From Cynicism to Proaction

Many commenters met the hypothetical with skepticism or outright dismissal. Some labeled the premise as "FUD to get investor money" (throwaway843), a common refrain in AI discussions. User lwo32k offered a more philosophical dismissal, questioning the primacy of human intelligence by comparing humans to ants and microbes, suggesting intelligence is a "side show." Others, like 42lux, responded with apathy: "I am probably still scrolling on tiktok."

In contrast, some users engaged directly with the question of optimal living:

Focus on Personal Fulfillment: solardev advocated for a stoic and hedonistic approach: "Enjoy it, relax, hike and garden more... Live, laugh, be nice to ChatGPT. What else can ya do?" This sentiment emphasized finding joy and meaning in the present, regardless of future technological upheavals.
Accelerate AGI's Arrival: toomuchtodo offered a proactive stance: "Identify opportunities to accelerate its arrival," reflecting a belief in AGI's potential benefits or the inevitability of its development.
Defer to Superintelligence: bigyabai initially suggested that if AGI truly eclipses human intelligence, the most logical course of action would be to "wait for superhuman intelligence to exist and ask it for advice," as human-devised plans would likely be suboptimal.
Curiosity and Inquiry: Bender expressed a desire to understand AGI's origins, hoping to "ask it who or what really created it."

Key Debates and Concerns

The discussion also surfaced several important debates and anxieties:

Defining AGI: The OP's economic definition of AGI as a system that makes human labor obsolete was a crucial framing. However, one commenter (sitkack) controversially claimed this threshold was already met by citing global poverty, a point the OP refuted as a misunderstanding.
Socio-Economic Impact: A significant concern, voiced by Disposal8433, was that AGI's benefits would not be distributed equitably: "that AI will be closely guarded by a few billionaires. Human greed will not disappear..."
AGI's Problem-Solving Capabilities: A central debate unfolded between the OP and bigyabai regarding AGI's potential to solve complex global problems like climate change. The OP argued that a superintelligent AI could likely find solutions, while bigyabai expressed skepticism, initially comparing AGI's potential impact to that of a "Python program" and later questioning the credibility of anyone making grand claims about a non-existent technology. bigyabai also pointed out that AI systems require "heuristic variability," which could create issues of trust and reliability with their outputs.
The Nature of the Discussion Itself: The OP, atleastoptimal, repeatedly expressed frustration with comments that dismissed the hypothetical outright, arguing for the value of considering transformative possibilities even if uncertain. They highlighted that such dismissals often prevent productive discussion about potential impacts, similar to how past technological shifts (internet, mobile phones) were once difficult to fully anticipate.

Navigating an Uncertain Future

Ultimately, the discussion did not yield a consensus on the "best thing to do." Instead, it served as a microcosm of broader societal conversations about AGI: a mix of hope, fear, skepticism, and genuine curiosity. The varied responses underscore the profound uncertainty and the deeply personal ways individuals contemplate a future potentially reshaped by intelligence far exceeding our own. The most productive arguments centered on the need for clear definitions, thoughtful consideration of socio-economic consequences, and an openness to exploring hypotheticals without succumbing to either uncritical hype or dismissive cynicism.