Why AI-Driven UBI Might Not Be the Solution to Homelessness

The proposition that artificial intelligence could eventually lead to mass unemployment, thereby forcing the adoption of Universal Basic Income (UBI) and solving homelessness, is a compelling future scenario. However, a closer look reveals significant practical, social, and economic hurdles that challenge this optimistic outcome.

UBI and the Complex Causes of Homelessness

A primary argument against UBI as a silver bullet for homelessness is that it misdiagnoses the problem as being purely financial. A significant portion of the homeless population suffers from severe mental illness or substance addiction. For these individuals, a cash payment alone is insufficient and could even be detrimental.

• Addiction and Mental Health: Providing a regular, no-strings-attached income to a person with a severe drug addiction could tragically fund a fatal overdose. Similarly, an individual with a mental illness that impairs executive function may lack the skills to manage funds, secure housing, and maintain a home without a robust support system, which UBI alone does not provide.
• The Role of Purpose: Even for those not currently homeless, the loss of a job can be devastating beyond the financial impact. Work often provides structure, purpose, and social connection. If AI eliminates jobs, UBI might replace the income but not the purpose. This void can lead to despair, depression, and an increased risk of addiction, potentially creating new pathways into homelessness.

Unintended Economic Consequences

Even if UBI could be effectively distributed, its economic effects are debated. A common cynical view is that a universal, predictable increase in income would be met with a corresponding increase in the cost of essential goods, particularly housing.

If everyone in a city receives an extra $1,000 per month, landlords may have a strong incentive to raise rents by a similar amount, capturing the UBI and leaving tenants in the same financial position as before. This inflationary pressure could neutralize the intended benefit of the basic income.

The Uncertain Path from AI to UBI

The assumption that mass unemployment caused by AI will inevitably lead to UBI is a significant political leap. Commentators raise two key questions:

1. The Mechanism of Wealth Transfer: How would the immense wealth generated by AI be collected from corporations and redistributed to the masses? The current economic and political systems are not built for such a large-scale transfer, and implementing one would face immense political opposition.
2. The Historical Precedent: Is UBI the natural outcome of societal upheaval, or is it wishful thinking? History provides many examples of societies responding to mass unemployment and poverty not with robust social safety nets, but with increased inequality, social unrest, and authoritarianism. The outcome of a "failed society" is seen by some as a more likely, if pessimistic, scenario.

In conclusion, while the idea of AI indirectly solving homelessness is intriguing, it overlooks the complex, non-financial drivers of homelessness and the formidable economic and political barriers to implementing an effective UBI system.