← back home

The Gas Station in 2040: EV Hubs, Convenience Havens, or Relics of the Past?

View original discussion on Hacker News

A Hacker News discussion pondered the future of gas stations in 15 years, by 2040, sparking a range of predictions from incremental changes to significant transformations. The central theme revolves around the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and how traditional fuel stops will adapt or be replaced.

The EV Revolution and Its Impact

A significant portion of the discussion focused on the inevitable increase in EV adoption. Commenters foresee:

  • More EV Chargers, Fewer Gas Pumps: Many, like magicalhippo citing Norway's example, believe stations will feature predominantly EV chargers, with gas pumps becoming a smaller, niche offering. Some urban stations might eliminate gas entirely.
  • The Rise of Charging Hubs: As EV charging takes longer than filling a gas tank (15+ minutes), the nature of the station is expected to change. They may become 'service hubs' or 'lounges' (toomuchtodo, PaulShin) offering better food, coffee, seating areas, and even co-working spaces or package return kiosks, as seen with concepts like GridServe in the UK (billybuckwheat).
  • Decentralized Charging: Many users (chrismatheson, mhandley, pradeepodela) pointed out that most EV charging will likely occur at home or work. This could lead to fewer traditional 'gas stations,' with chargers appearing more frequently at supermarkets, malls, restaurants, and other destinations people already visit (toomuchtodo, raldi).
  • Battery Swapping: A few users (Bender, protocolture) mentioned battery swapping as a potential service, offering a quicker alternative to charging.

The Evolution of the Convenience Store

The convenience store aspect of gas stations is widely expected to become even more critical for profitability.

  • Enhanced Food and Beverage: Stations are predicted to offer higher quality and a wider variety of food and drinks. The success of BP's coffee sales (HenryBemis) and the Buc-ee's model in Texas (jasondigitized, throwaway1854), which emphasizes amenities and merchandising over fuel, were highlighted as examples of this trend.
  • Fewer Car-Specific Items: As stations cater more to EV owners waiting to charge, the focus might shift from automotive products (like 'blinker fluid,' humorously noted by shawn_w) to general convenience and entertainment.

Pace of Change and Regional Differences

There's disagreement on how quickly these changes will occur:

  • Gradual Change: Some users (codegeek, kcplate) believe gas stations in 2040 won't be drastically different from today, citing the slow pace of change historically and the long lifespan of existing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
  • Rapid Transformation: Others (raldi, Symbiote) point to accelerating EV adoption, potential bans on petrol car sales (e.g., EU), and the newspaper industry's rapid decline as analogies for faster change.
  • Geographic Variation: The future will likely look different depending on the region. Norway is already seeing a rapid shift (magicalhippo, amai). The US might see a slower, more uneven transition (vehemenz, toomuchtodo), with some areas innovating (e.g., Buc-ee's) while others lag. Developing countries might see an increase in traditional gas stations as car ownership rises (agrimrai).

Staffing, Payment, and Technology

  • Automation and Staffing: Predictions vary from fully automated, staff-less stations with AI-powered anomaly detection (karar01, bravesoul2) to stations still staffed by human employees (Bender). QR code scanners and app-based payments (Supermancho) are expected to become more common.
  • Payment Methods: Credit/debit cards will remain, but mobile payments and potentially cryptocurrencies (Bender, toomuchtodo) could gain traction.
  • Advertising and Data: An increase in digital displays, personalized advertising, and data collection (baobun, dark__paladin, andy99) is a widely anticipated, if somewhat unwelcome, trend.

Will Gas Stations Still Sell Gas?

Most commenters agree that yes, gas (and especially diesel for heavy trucks - Bender) will still be sold in 2040, but likely at fewer locations and with fewer pumps per station. The decline in demand might make some smaller, older stations unviable (danpalmer), potentially leading to 'petroleum brownfields' (greyface-).

Other Notable Predictions

  • Hydrogen Fuel: While some see a role for hydrogen, particularly in Japan (deepsun), others are skeptical about its viability for personal transport compared to BEVs (magicalhippo).
  • 'Destination' Stations: The idea of gas stations becoming destinations in themselves, offering unique experiences or better amenities (e.g., Buc-ee's), was a recurring theme (jasondigitized, varsketiz).
  • Sci-Fi Concepts: More futuristic ideas included self-driving fuel-dispensing trucks or highway 'trains' for cars to dock onto (d--b).

Ultimately, the gas station of 2040 is envisioned as a more diverse landscape. Some will be modern EV charging hubs focused on customer experience, while others might be deteriorating relics of a fading ICE era. The core business model is expected to shift further from fuel sales to high-margin convenience items and services catering to a longer customer dwell time.