The World After US Global Power: A 15-Year Forecast

The prospect of the United States losing its significant global power prompts a fascinating, multifaceted exploration into what the world might look like in 15 years. The initial challenge in contemplating such a future is defining "losing"—whether it implies a defeat in an AI race, a geopolitical contest, or an internal societal breakdown. Nevertheless, a consistent theme emerges around the idea of a significant decline in the US's hegemonic influence, paving the way for profound global transformations.

The Retreat of a Superpower

A recurring prediction suggests that while the US might cede global power, it would not become powerless. Instead, many envision a strategic pivot where the US focuses on consolidating its dominance within the Americas. This "Pan-American US" approach is seen by some as a strong, albeit delayed, strategy, allowing it to assert authoritarian control over its immediate sphere of influence.

The Rise of New Global Orders

The vacuum left by a less dominant US is widely predicted to be filled by other major players. China is consistently highlighted as the economic and political successor, particularly through its continuous investments in Africa, with nations like Nigeria potentially gaining increased prominence on the world stage. India is also identified as a formidable rising power, positioned for supremacy after China.

Russia, while currently vying for influence and seen as a preoccupation for Europe, is also considered a potential future partner for Europe by some, aligning on shared interests, history, and culture, rather than remaining an isolated entity. The UK is anticipated to continue its role of indirect manipulation on the global stage, a skill honed since relinquishing its own empire.

Geopolitical Realignments and Regional Dynamics

The established "West vs. Rest" divisions that have structured the world since WWII are expected to undergo significant reorganization under new leadership, likely China's. Europe is largely seen as primarily preoccupied with stemming Russian incursions, while simultaneously navigating complex immigration challenges.

Latin America and Africa are viewed as crucial "wildcards." While some believe they might continue existing patterns of "blame and social manipulation games," others suggest they hold significant contemporary potential for grassroots populism and rapid change. This potential, especially if combined with shifting fortunes and new technologies, could lead to formidable new orders. Oceania's fate is less clear, with possibilities ranging from being "pillaged" to remaining "less than relevant." The Middle East and South Asia face complex dynamics, particularly with India's ascent and the role of Israel.

Consequences and Societal Impact

A less dominant US brings several profound implications:

• Nuclear Proliferation: Countries currently under the US nuclear umbrella are expected to seek their own nuclear deterrents, potentially accelerating proliferation. There is a belief that "decaying empires are more dangerous" due to increased desperation to cling to power, which could make war an external result of internal decline.

• Challenging Narratives: There's a strong sentiment that a power shift could lead to a "rude awakening" for those who attribute global South problems solely to Western governments or who adhere to "false narratives" about alternative systems. The discussion posits that the order established by Abrahamic faiths and Western philosophies (influenced by pre-existing Middle Eastern cultures) has offered valuable lessons on what works, while also critiquing oligopoly and monopoly as distortions of capitalism.

• Internal US Challenges: Some predictions for the US involve a potential "civil war of society," marked by riots and crime if economic collapse and starvation take hold. Another view suggests a future reminiscent of a "1950s peak society," where advanced technology becomes a perk for the privileged few, and ordinary people lose true power over their destinies, living a seemingly normal, comfortable life devoid of meaningful agency.

• The True Meaning of Power: The discussion also touches on the idea that if the US loses its global standing, the world might experience the "true meaning" of terms like "fascist," highlighting the potential for harsher, less restrained forms of power to emerge. Conversely, a hopeful perspective suggests that perhaps "something better" could emerge from such a transition. This comprehensive outlook paints a picture of a world in flux, where established power structures dissolve, new ones emerge, and the consequences ripple through geopolitics, economics, and individual lives.