When Fortune Favored Us: Humanity's Most Critical Dodged Bullets

Reflecting on moments of historical peril often brings to mind unfortunate turns and what-ifs. However, an equally compelling, yet often overlooked, perspective is considering the times humanity got incredibly lucky, often without realizing how close we came to vastly different, and often worse, realities. These 'dodged bullets' reveal how fragile our path has been and highlight the immense impact of individual decisions and fortunate coincidences.

Averted Nuclear Catastrophes

Perhaps the most chilling examples of humanity dodging a bullet involve the brink of nuclear war. Two figures stand out: Vasily Arkhipov, who, during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, single-handedly blocked the launch of a nuclear torpedo from a Soviet submarine. His refusal to authorize the strike, despite immense pressure, prevented an escalation that could have led to full-scale nuclear war.

Another hero, Stanislav Petrov, in 1983, chose to disregard an apparent missile launch warning from the Soviet early warning system, correctly believing it to be a false alarm. His decision not to immediately report the incoming missiles up the chain of command likely averted a retaliatory strike against the United States. While Petrov's action was crucial, it's also worth noting the Soviet "Dead Hand" system was designed to prevent hasty decisions in the event of a nuclear attack, offering a layer of automated retaliation.

Environmental Near-Disasters

Beyond warfare, the world has faced environmental threats. The Chernobyl disaster in 1986, while catastrophic, could have been far worse. Below the melting core lay a water reservoir. Had the molten core breached this reservoir, a steam explosion would have spread vastly more radioactive material, potentially rendering much of Eastern Europe uninhabitable for centuries. The heroic efforts to drain the water and mitigate the disaster were a critical bullet dodged.

Biological Fortunes

The emergence of HIV/AIDS presents a complex case of fortunate timing amidst a global health crisis. While devastating, the virus is relatively intransmissible compared to airborne pathogens. Crucially, its emergence in the late 20th century coincided with significant advancements in medical science. Retroviruses were only discovered a few years prior, molecular amplification technologies (like PCR for testing) were developed in the 1970s, and the first antivirals effective against retroviruses had just been developed. Had HIV emerged earlier, say in the early 20th century, without these diagnostic and therapeutic tools, its impact could have been immeasurably more uncontrolled and widespread.

Serendipitous Scientific Breakthroughs

The foundation of modern medicine owes a great deal to a stroke of luck: Alexander Fleming's discovery of penicillin. In 1928, Fleming noticed a mold inhibiting bacterial growth in a petri dish he had accidentally left uncovered while on vacation. This serendipitous observation led to the development of antibiotics, fundamentally changing how infections are treated and saving countless lives. Without this chance discovery, the development of antibiotics might have been delayed for a very long time, prolonging an era where even minor infections were often fatal.

Ancient Survival and Historical Turns

Looking further back, humanity itself faced near-extinction. Around 930,000 to 813,000 years ago, our ancestors underwent a severe population bottleneck, dwindling to an estimated 1,280 breeding individuals for over 100,000 years. Our very existence is a testament to surviving this ancient brush with oblivion.

History is also replete with military and political moments where the outcome hinged on a narrow margin. The Battle of Vienna in 1683, for example, is often cited as a turning point that prevented the Ottoman Empire's further expansion into Western Europe. Similarly, the fact that Hitler did not acquire nuclear weapons during World War II is another profound bullet dodged for the world.